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NEW CIVIL WAR - FINAL

 
   So, will the current virulent political polarization eventuate in Americans fighting
 
government -- and even one another -- in the streets? It seems more possible now
 
than at any time since the Civil War of the 1860s, but like all historic upheaval it
 
depends on several factors.
 
   One key is the middle class that represents the latgest social group and the mainstream
 
of the nation. If and when it is the consensus of this group that government intends
 
to limit their potential for upward financial mobility, or that government policies are
 
unacceptably punitive and confiscatory toward them, the potential for rebellion and
 
violence will escalate exponentially. The objective of left-leaning (socialist) politics
 
has always been the "classless society." If it becomes evident that this will be achieved
 
by pushing the middle class (majority) down, open rebellion may well occur.
 
   It also depends on whether radical government policies can be effectively moderated
 
by electoral and parliamentary means. If a majority come to believe that a "one-party
 
system" is being perpetuated, that elections are being manipulated through clever
 
identity politics and shekeinery and that it is impossible, by other means, to restore
 
reasonable checks an balances, the seeds for revolution will have been irrevocably
 
sown.
 
   Additionally, if repressive government regulations in areas such as the private
 
right to own and bear arms, the ability to own and solely control private property,
 
 the freedom to strive for ecoomic independence or the right to open and free
 
 speech (including dissenting speech) begin to severely limit the liberties now
 
enjoyed by Americans they WILL rebel, and they WILL fight.
 
   Should hostilities break out, what might such conflict look like. Clearly we
 
will not see armies massed in the hills outside Gettysburg, as in the bloodiest
 
battle of the 1860s. It may start with a Kent State type incident, with government
 
violently repressing massed dissent, or be triggered by the implementation of
 
some new Draconian policy. It will be guerilla warfare, adopting the tactics like
 
those of the Weather Underground and targeting government facilities and even
 
officials. It wil doubtless involve relentless cyber-attacks and aim at degrading
 
governments capacity to function. If it becomes class warfare, it may even result
 
in open battles between the entitlement population and those who consider
 
themselves victimized by the growth of those entitlements. It may result in
 
the suspension of posse comitatus, federalization of the national guard and open
 
mobilization of the military against the civilian population. The matter of
 
whether American troops, a majority of whom disagree with government policy,
 
would obey an order to fire on Americans on American soil is anyone's guess.
 
   But the fact is that enough of the elements exist -- at least in rudimentary
 
fashion -- to suggest that a revolt is possible. The clear message to government
 
is to slow down systemic change, listen to ALL the people, not just political
 
patrons, the entitlement class or powerful unions, and seek moderations that
 
will allow Americans to digest change gradually. Avoid overt power grabs and
 
arbitrary suspensions of traditional freedoms. Allow the courts time to consider
 
and rule on constitutional issues at stake. Avoid the apperance of discarding
 
or discounting traditional American values. Or pursue an opposite course at
 
your own peril. America was born in revolution and waged a bitter civil conflict
 
to preserve a union and achieve rights for all. Any group or government that
 
believes Americans have lost the drive, the commitment or the stomach to defend
 
their hard-won liberties -- by force if necessary -- embraces a deadly delusion.
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CIVIL WAR (PART II)

 
    Long before civil war broke out between the north and south, a climate
 
 of dislike and suspicion prevailed. Northeners routinely regarded their
 
 southern counterparts as cruel, ruthless and morally bankrupt. Southerners
 
listened to the abolitionist moralizing harboring suspicion that the demanded
 
 immediate release of all slaves was based not as much on moral grounds
 
 as on a desire by northern bankers and working class people to level the
 
 economic playing field between themselves and southern plantation owners.
 
 
    Southerners resented what they perceived as creeping federalism, and
 
 saw the rights hard won in the Revolutionary War slipping away from
 
 the states to a congress and president in Washington. Northerners, on
 
 the other hand, welcomed that trend as a way of reigning in what they
 
 regarded as recalcitrant southern aristocracies. Abolitionists found the
 
 human bondage of slavery morally abhorrent, but southerners worried
 
 that releasing the slaves would cause such a great economic and social
 
 upheaval and drain on meager states' resources that it was impractical
 
 without a careful plan. While Abraham Lincoln cut a giant and historic
 
 swath he was, at the time, perceived as a highly polarizing leader, with
 
 the north exalting him as the "great emancipator" and the south loathing
 
 him as a tyrant with an agenda. So the fight was formally about slavery,
 
 but historians then and now have divined far more complex agendas. In the
 
 excellent civil war film Gettysburg, a Confederate general expressing his
 
 feelings about the conflict is depicted saying, "We should have freed the
 
 slaves and THEN fired on Fort Sumter." Many civil war era southerners
 
 felt exactly that way.
 
    Fast forward to 2009 and the election of Barack Hussein Obama to the
 
 highest office in the land. Charismatic and silver-tongued, he has been
 
 hailed by the masses as a social savior, and exclusively embraced by the
 
 media and a congress that is predominantly of his party. But not all worship
 
 at his feet. Many perceive him as a reckless spendthrift whose social agenda
 
 is nothing more than an irresponsible and dangerous shift toward socialism.
 
 His rash takeovers of troubled business organizations, repeated promises
 
 to "spread the wealth around," embrace of ten-year multi-trillion dollar
 
 government budget deficits and cavalier public criticisms of the people he
 
was elected to represent have disillusioned many, and are making him new
 
enemies and detractors daily.
 
  States are beginning to openly rebel at federal interference, with some
 
 rejecting outright federal bailout funds that carry heavy strings, and
 
 passing laws designed to override Draconian gun control regulations
 
 contemplated by the feds. The federal agency charged with protecting
 
 the homeland openly worries about the radicalization of those disagreeing
 
 with federal abortion policies that they consider every bit as immoral as
 
 slavery, with unbridled illegal immigration and the prospect of avaricious
 
 government taxation. People see their individual rights slipping away, a
 
 belief aided when Hillary Clinton, Secretary of State says publicly that
 
 "we have to stop looking at the individual" so that the collective good,
 
 solely adjudged by government, may be served.
 
     America has survived deep polarizations before. Prohibition, Civil Rights
 
 and forced integration and the wars in Viet Nam and Iraq have sent our
 
 citizens to the street in mass protest amd resulted in violent clashes
 
 between competing interests and between protestors and authorities. The
 
 strategic difference between those polarizations and the present one is
 
 that they were all single-issue disputes, while this one, as in 1860, covers 
 
  a far broader range of closely related issues.
 
   From the Revolutionary War of the 1770s forward, it has never been
 
 the nature of Americans to suffer perceived oppression in silence. It is
 
 virtually inevitable that disillusioned voters will eventually take to the
 
 streets to protest government takeovers of private business, government
 
 recklessness, interference in the healthcare system. amnesty for those
 
 having entered the country illegally, and the cronyist system of favoritism
 
 being practiced in Washington today. It is equally inevitable that
 
 government will respond in an effort to suppress that dissent.
 
   So are we on a collision course with another Kent State, where National
 
 Guard troops fired on protestors, or with an American redux of Tiananmen
 
 Square? And if so, will such incidents be the precursor to wider civil
 
 conflict? More importantly, is there a rational way of backing away from
 
 the abyss BEFORE the veil of peace is rent? The third and final part of
 
 this essay will speculate on whether Civil War is a thinkable possibility,
 
 if so what it might look like and what can be done by all parties to
 
 pre-empt it.
 
 
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NEW CIVIL WAR LOOMING?

 
   Civil political discourse in the United States of America is but a distant memory.
 
Venomous partisanship flourishes and a ruthless winner-take-all spoils system seems
 
firmly in place. The media has divided the nation into "red states" and "blue states" on
 
the basis of a single election, and declared the losing party dead. The blogs are rife
 
with namecalling and hysterical tirades as liberals and conservatives trade hostile
 
barbs. The nation seems more polarized than at any time in its 200 year history.
 
   There are chilling similarities between the current climate of enmity and that which
 
existed circa 1860 when civil war broke out between northern and southern states,
 
pitting Americans against each other in a bloody conflict that left scars still felt today.
 
It is simplistic revisionist history to suggest that the war was simply about slavery.
 
There were deep and pervasive economic and social differences between the north
 
and the south, with each concerned for its own business interests and each convinced
 
that its way of life was best. Unsettled disputes about federal rights versus states'
 
rights raged, with diverging interpretations of the constitution hanging in the balance.
 
The abolitionist movement was gaining steam in the north, with proponents casting
 
slavery as the moral issue that it was and calling for the freeing of all slaves. The
 
northern media shrilled termagant bile at the south, mocking southerners as uneducated
 
countryfied dolts with faulty moral compasses. Then Lincoln was elected, which
 
seemed to the south a last straw. Perceived as a pro-northern, pro-abolitionist, pro-
 
federal rights president, he would see seven states secede from the union before he
 
took the oath of office. Then, when the south had lost, with some of its major cities
 
razed to the ground, the historically inevitable happened. John Wilkes Booth put a
 
bullet in Abraham Lincoln's brain.
 
   The simple point is this: when Americans see themselves as shut out of the public
 
conversation of government, when they perceive their rights being trampled upon
 
wholesale, when they see what they have worked and scrounged to accumulate about
 
to be confiscated by an invasive and oppressive regime, they WILL rebel. There are
 
few moralist arguments that trump the individual American's right to life, liberty and the
 
pursuit of happiness. And when that sanctuary is profaned, conflict is as certain as
 
night following day.
 
   In tomorrow's post some direct parallels will be drawn between 1860 and today,
 
and some predictions will be made about where this frightening trend might be
 
going. Please share your comments, and tune in for Part II.
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